Hawkish US Fed Stance Suppresses Risk Appetite; Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Closes 0.36 Lower, Testing Technical Support Level [SMM Tin Futures Brief]

March 20, 2025 Daily Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Futures Contract (SN2504) The most-traded SHFE tin futures contract (SN2504) fluctuated downward today. At the close, the price was 280,360 yuan/mt, down 0.36% from the previous day's settlement. The intraday trading range was 276,840-281,310 yuan/mt, with a volatility of 1.6%, indicating an intense tug-of-war between longs and shorts. The turnover reached 37.876 billion yuan, while open interest decreased by 2,462 lots to 23,701 lots. Net capital outflow amounted to 869.357 million yuan, reflecting cautious market sentiment. In the overseas market, LME tin experienced minor fluctuations due to US Fed policy disturbances but did not break through key resistance levels, maintaining a high price spread between domestic and overseas markets. The US Fed's March interest rate meeting kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% unchanged, in line with market expectations. However, the policy statement removed the phrase "risks to the employment and inflation outlook are roughly balanced" and emphasized "increased economic uncertainty." The dot plot showed that for 2025, the expectation remains two interest rate cuts (median 3.9%), but there is growing divergence, with four members supporting no cut and nine supporting a 50-basis-point cut. The stance of "not rushing to adjust" dampened market expectations for easing policies. The US dollar index pulled back slightly but remained at a high level (around 103.6), while gold hit a record high (spot gold exceeded $3,050/oz). The dovish hold by the US Fed, coupled with the supply-demand imbalance in SHFE tin, put pressure on prices, leading to a closing decline. Going forward, attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the technical support at 275,000 yuan/mt and changes in sentiment in the overseas metal market. If the US dollar index rebounds or macro data falls short of expectations, SHFE tin may further probe lower. It is recommended that investors manage their positions to guard against extreme volatility risks.